Another week at Wall Street’s grand opera house saw the stock market encore extend unabated, with Nasdaq performing a magnificent eight-week virtuoso streak and the S&P 500, singing a bullish aria, gaining an applause-worthy 2.5% after the dramatic duet of inflation news and the Fed’s intermission in its rate hike repertoire.
Looking ahead, the spectatorship of investors will keep their opera glasses trained on the US central bank’s maestro, Chair Jay Powell, as he performs his semi-annual symphony before the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee, on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
On the corporate docket, the spotlight will bathe FedEx (FDX) after Tuesday’s final curtain, marking this week’s pièce de résistance. As a courier traversing various industry landscapes, the company serves as a reliable barometer for economic ebb and flow.
Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson will be next on the Capitol Hill stage, nominated by President Biden for confirmation hearings before the Senate. Cook is cast for a full term as a member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, with Jefferson set for the role of Vice Chair.
The economic calendar promises a relatively understated performance, with investor attention pirouetting towards Thursday’s initial jobless claims data. Signs of a softening labor market are becoming increasingly evident, like the recurring leitmotif in a symphony. Additionally, the initial figures from S&P Global on Friday will offer insights into the second quarter’s economic crescendo.
US markets will observe a rest on Monday to commemorate Juneteenth.
As the second quarter of 2023 approaches its grand finale, the three major indexes bask in the spotlight, boasting impressive performances. The Nasdaq shows its virtuosity with a 30% increase this year, the S&P 500 flexes its financial prowess with just under a 15% gain, and even the Dow Jones Industrial Average, after a slight stumble last year, boasts a 3.5% increase for 2023.
Last week saw the Fed holding its interest rate baton steady, the first pause in its rate hike symphony since January 2022. However, the Fed’s inaction was underscored by revised economic forecasts suggesting a couple of encores — rate hikes, that is — are necessary for inflation to bow to the Fed’s 2% target.
The ongoing conversation in the stock market arena has begun to shift away from the play-by-play of the Fed’s moves and towards the growing symphony of AI hype. With the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech giants — Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia — conducting much of the turnaround performance, the dominant theme appears to be that incumbent tech behemoths are the true maestros of the AI revolution.
But amidst the euphoria surrounding AI and its potential for driving the stock market to new heights, some remain cautious, with murmurs of a potential slowdown in the second half of the year.
“We still think a mild economic downturn may take some heat out of the stock market in the second half of 2023,” Higgins from Capital Economics speculates.
The market may have already factored in the expected recession and recovery. Or perhaps it’s betting on the economic equivalent of Schroedinger’s cat, the recession that everyone sees coming might never materialize. Only time will reveal the final act of this financial drama. And, as always, the show must go on.
Weekly calendar: For your weekly financial opera programme, keep an eye on the homebuilder confidence on Monday, building permits and housing starts on Tuesday, weekly mortgage applications on Wednesday, initial jobless claims, existing home sales, and leading index of economic indicators on Thursday. Rounding off the week with S&P Global flash manufacturing PMI, and S&P Global flash services PMI on Friday.
Disclaimer: The content provided in this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified professional before making investment decisions.